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The pictures show how GCSE Maths grade boundaries have changed through the last few years. The most striking thing is how the higher boundaries have shifted up significantly. The foundation boundaries have remained quite static by comparison.
The new GCSE grades will be based on the old system so it is really important to have accurate data about the old system before predicting the new grades. The government have said that a grade 1 will be the same as a grade G a grade 4 the same as a grade C and a grade 7 the same as a grade A. They have also said that a fifth of grade 7s and above will achieve a grade 9. So if you take the exam in a smart year, good luck! The table below really helps with how to predict the other grades, and although it cannot be used too much, it does hint at where the other grades will lay. The biggest thing to realise for teacher is the grade 3 being compared to a grade D, and not an E. This means schools need to think twice before entering lower sets into the higher paper!
I did not look at any of the other predictions before doing the analysis myself however I have done now. The most prominent one is from CGP and thankfully it is not too dissimilar to my prediction. Mine seems to be a few percent higher than theirs on the lower grades but these predictions will always be a rough guess anyway. The whole point of spending my day doing this was to give a ball park figure which I have been blessed with having since becoming a teacher. This allows us to better predict where students need help and allows students to better analyse their performance. I hope it helps.If you disagree with my predictions please get in touch. I do not mind eating humble pie!
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